PJM on the Verge of Back-to-Back May Load Records
Load running well above the May mean, peaks clustering in the evening ramp, and Data Center Alley nodes clearing above $2,000/MWh
PJM is on the verge of setting back-to-back all-time May load records, and we're only about halfway through the month.
Consider the following:
- 18 May peaks at 134 GW; 19 May pushes to 135 GW — ranking third and second respectively for all-time May daily peaks, behind only the historic 140 GW day on 31 May 2022.
- Daily averages of roughly 107–111 GW are running 40–50% above the historical May mean.
- Both days are tracking well outside the 90th percentile of historical May loads.
- Peaks are clustering in the 17:00–18:00 window as solar drops off and cooling demand surges — exactly where hourly granularity matters most.
- Seasonally driven outages, despite PJM's Hot Weather Alerts, make this especially ripe for significant volatility.
The recent day-ahead clears reflected exactly that:
- Zonal peak LMPs in Dominion and BGE cleared over $900/MWh for 18 May, with Dominion breaking through $1,000/MWh on 19 May, driven heavily by congestion.
- Dominion's forecast peak load is exceeding internal scheduled capacity by nearly 5 GW.
- Almost all nodes in Data Center Alley saw DA clears surpass $2,000/MWh for HE17 on 18 and 19 May, as multiple constraints bound simultaneously.
Looking ahead to 20 May, PJM has issued a Hot Weather Alert for the South and Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected, leading a cold front into the I-95 corridor — but if it arrives late, afternoon cooling load keeps building while western parts of the RTO cool off. That roughly 40°F temperature gradient sets up significant east-west congestion dynamics and continued pressure on the Western Hub / N Illinois spread.
We're watching these load forecasts, congestion patterns, and price signals closely. This is exactly the kind of volatile, high-stakes environment where real-time intelligence and hourly granularity matter.